ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2009 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT JIMENA IS SHEARING APART THIS MORNING. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER JIMENA...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND MOVED OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WHILE THERE IS NO RECENT DATA FROM THE CYCLONE CORE...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT JIMENA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND JIMENA IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT...130/2. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER TODAY THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. WHILE THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 27.4N 111.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 27.3N 111.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 27.0N 112.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 05/1800Z 26.8N 112.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 06/0600Z 26.6N 113.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:24 UTC