ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009 800 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2009 MICROWAVE PASSES FROM TRMM AND AMSR-E HAVE HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER OF JIMENA THIS MORNING...WHICH APPEARS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS CAUSED ALMOST ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DISPLACED EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT AFTER CONSIDERING THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND ASSUMING A GRADUAL REDUCTION OF THE WINDS. STRONG SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF JIMENA...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW. STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME WEAK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/4. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS JIMENA BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BAM SHALLOW. THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH JIMENA IS HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 27.9N 112.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 28.1N 112.9W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 04/1200Z 28.0N 113.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 05/0000Z 27.6N 114.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/1200Z 27.2N 114.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:24 UTC