ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009 200 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2009 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF IGNACIO IS EXPOSED WELL TO THE WEST OF A WEAKENING BAND OF CONVECTION. A QUIKSCAT PASS THAT ARRIVED SHORTLY AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED SOME RELIABLE 40-45 KT WIND VECTORS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS THAT WAS JUST RECEIVED SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BUT DID NOT SAMPLE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. A BLEND OF THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. IGNACIO WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...THEN TURN WEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT LIES A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE-WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 22.1N 124.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 23.3N 126.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 25.0N 128.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 28/0600Z 26.4N 129.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 28/1800Z 27.0N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/1800Z 27.0N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:23 UTC