Tropical Storm IGNACIO
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TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
200 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2009
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF IGNACIO IS EXPOSED WELL TO THE WEST OF A
WEAKENING BAND OF CONVECTION. A QUIKSCAT PASS THAT ARRIVED SHORTLY
AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED SOME RELIABLE
40-45 KT WIND VECTORS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS
THAT WAS JUST RECEIVED SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT BUT DID NOT SAMPLE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.
A BLEND OF THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES
YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. IGNACIO WILL BE MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...THEN TURN WEST IN THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT LIES
A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE-WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT
AND ASCAT DATA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/2100Z 22.1N 124.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 23.3N 126.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 25.0N 128.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 28/0600Z 26.4N 129.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 28/1800Z 27.0N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 29/1800Z 27.0N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
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