ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 2009 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FINALLY TAKING A TOLL ON GUILLERMO...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING ONLY A FAINT EYE AND AN ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 75 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY WITH THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSING 30 KT OF SHEAR BEGINNING OVERNIGHT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE HWRF/SHIPS/LGEM. THE GFDL UNREALISTICALLY RE-INTENSIFIES THE VORTEX AT THE END OF PERIOD AND IS DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND IS NOW 285/12. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL BEND FROM A WEST-NORTHWEST TO A NORTHWEST TRACK AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THIS TRACK FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY SOME MODELS THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF GUILLERMO MIGHT MOVE MORE A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION AT 96 HOURS. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44 PHFO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 20.4N 139.8W 75 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 21.0N 141.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 22.0N 144.8W 50 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 23.3N 147.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 24.8N 150.8W 35 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 28.5N 157.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 20/1800Z 31.5N 164.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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