ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 16 2009 FINAL-T DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE FALLEN TO T4.5...AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS T4.7. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 85 KT. GUILLERMO HAS BEEN REMARKABLY TOUGH IN WITHSTANDING THE 24.5C WATER IT IS NOW OVER...BUT THE HURRICANE WILL SOON HAVE TO ALSO CONTEND WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST THUS SHOWS FAIRLY QUICK WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH GUILLERMO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITHIN 96 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13. GUILLERMO WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHILE COMING UNDER GREATER INFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR HAWAII OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 19.8N 137.4W 85 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 20.3N 139.4W 75 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 21.2N 142.1W 60 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 22.2N 144.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 23.3N 147.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 26.0N 153.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 29.0N 159.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:22 UTC