ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 15 2009 GUILLERMO HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE VIGOR OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND...IF ANYTHING...HAS DEVELOPED A MORE SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST SINCE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. A RATHER DISTINCT... CLOUD-FILLED EYE IS ALSO OBSERVED...ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. SINCE 1800 UTC...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF GUILLERMO HAS AT LEAST PERSISTED. BASED UPON THESE DATA AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AS HIGH AS 5.6 FROM UW CIMSS ADT ANALYSES...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 95 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/13...REPRESENTING A SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SINCE EARLIER TODAY. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING BEHIND THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME. GUILLERMO IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WESTWARD IN THE EAST PACIFIC TO PAST 140W. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM HAS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP GUILLERMO ON A STABLE...WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A RETROGRADING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE MOTION OF GUILLERMO BY IMPARTING A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD GUIDE A WEAKENING GUILLERMO ON ESSENTIALLY THE SAME TRACK. UNDER VERY LIGHT SHEAR...GUILLERMO HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY IN SPITE OF MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY HOSTILE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITHIN 24 HOURS AND EVEN COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RESULT IN A DECIDED WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH ICON AND LGEM AND CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE...CALLING FOR GUILLERMO TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND TO DISSIPATE BY DAY 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 19.7N 135.9W 95 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 20.3N 137.9W 80 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 21.1N 140.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 22.0N 143.1W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 23.1N 145.9W 45 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 25.5N 151.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 28.0N 156.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 21/0000Z 30.5N 162.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA NNNN
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