ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GUILLERMO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009 1030 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GUILLERMO HAS INTENSIFIED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE NOW COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY A THICK RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. A SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AT 0430 UTC GAVE A T-NUMBER OF 5.5...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 100 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGE IN INITIAL INTENSITY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS...AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEYOND THAT TIME AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO INCREASE MARKEDLY BY 36 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...AS IS THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE WIND RADII FORECAST HAS MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0530Z 18.4N 130.8W 100 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 18.7N 132.3W 100 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 19.3N 135.0W 90 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.9N 137.6W 70 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 20.5N 140.2W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 22.2N 145.3W 40 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 24.0N 150.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 26.0N 156.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:22 UTC