ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009 ENHANCED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT GUILLERMO IS A LITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING. BANDING OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...INDICATIVE OF AN EARLIER TRMM OVERPASS SUGGESTING A WELL-DEFINED BANDING EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT...SUPPORTED BY DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITIES AND 70 KT ESTIMATES FROM A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS AND AN EARLIER UW-CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE CYCLONE MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND THE 24 HOUR PERIOD...GUILLERMO SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES OVER COOLER WATER AND WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...LGEM...AND SHIPS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ON DAYS 4 AND 5...THE FORECAST IS HEDGED CLOSER TO THE SHIPS WHICH REFLECTS A MORE REASONABLE WEAKENING TREND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A PERSISTENT 280/14...WITHIN THE PERIPHERAL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE 5 DAY FORECAST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TOGETHER...BUT DO INDICATE SLIGHT DEVIATIONS IN FOREWORD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ON DAY 5. THE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED BASED ON DATA FROM AN ASCAT PASS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 17.8N 127.3W 70 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 18.2N 129.3W 70 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 18.8N 132.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 19.4N 134.6W 60 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 20.1N 137.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 21.4N 142.7W 45 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 22.6N 147.7W 35 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 24.0N 152.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:22 UTC