ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009 200 PM PDT THU AUG 13 2009 VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT GUILLERMO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. BANDING CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. IN FACT...THE EARLIER SSMIS OVERPASS INDICATED A BANDING EYE FEATURE. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT...WHICH ALSO IS SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...ALL INDICATING STRENGTHENING TO A LOW END HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS AND MAINTAINING THIS INTENSITY THROUGH THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARD...GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/13...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH. THE LARGE-SCALE AND HURRICANE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE MAINTAINING STRENGTH AND A GENERAL EAST-WEST ORIENTATION DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTERWARD...A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST IS INDICATED AS GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO BE INFLUENCED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 17.2N 123.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 17.6N 125.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 18.2N 127.9W 70 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 18.8N 130.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 19.4N 133.6W 60 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 20.5N 139.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 21.0N 144.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 21.0N 149.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:22 UTC