ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009 200 PM PDT MON AUG 10 2009 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ANALYZED AT 18 KT BY THE SHIPS MODEL...HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON THE DEPRESSION...LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED FOR A TIME TO THE WEST OF BURSTING DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ANY APPRECIABLE INTENSIFICATION AS IT PREDICTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE WILL DECREASE TEMPORARILY BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS. MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS FURTHER WEAKENING OR DISSIPATION AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN EARLIER. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTH OF WEST FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE LONGER-TERM MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/10. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...THERE IS LITTLE REASON FOR THE SYSTEM TO GAIN MUCH LATITUDE AS IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD...IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THAT LONG. THE FORWARD SPEED IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 15.1N 124.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 15.2N 125.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 15.4N 127.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 15.6N 129.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 15.6N 131.3W 25 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 15.5N 135.5W 25 KT 96HR VT 14/1800Z 15.5N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:21 UTC