Hurricane FELICIA

ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17               
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009               
2100 UTC FRI AUG 07 2009                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       1       5      18      35      44
TROP DEPRESSION  X       1       9      25      38      38      36
TROPICAL STORM   7      49      69      60      40      25      20
HURRICANE       93      50      22      11       4       2       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       81      44      18       9       4       2       1
HUR CAT 2       11       5       3       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        2       1       1       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   75KT    65KT    55KT    45KT    35KT    25KT    20KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 145W       34  X   2( 2)  24(26)  22(48)   3(51)   X(51)   X(51)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
20N 145W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HILO           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   1(11)
 
SOUTH POINT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)
 
KAILUA-KONA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)
 
KAHULUI        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
 
LANAI CITY     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
KAUNAKAKAI     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
LIHUE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
NIIHAU         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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