ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009 VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THAT FELICIA REMAINS A RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND IMPRESSIVE SPIRAL BANDING. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA FROM A 1649 SSMIS PASS SHOW THAT THE EYEWALL HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY FROM EARLIER WITH ONLY ABOUT 50 PERCENT COVERAGE AROUND THE EYE. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL BE KEPT AT 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...INITIALLY DUE TO COOL WATERS...THEN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MARGINAL SSTS AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT CONTINUES AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 290/12. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD FORCE A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST BY LATE TOMORROW AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LONGER RANGE WITH THE GFS/NOGAPS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE UKMET/GFDL/HWRF ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. THE AFTERNOON MODEL CONSENSUS LIES CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND WITH NO CLEAR SIGNALS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION TO PREFER...LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 18.3N 136.9W 85 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 18.8N 138.7W 75 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 19.3N 141.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 09/0600Z 19.5N 143.7W 55 KT 48HR VT 09/1800Z 19.5N 146.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 10/1800Z 19.5N 152.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 11/1800Z 19.5N 157.5W 25 KT 120HR VT 12/1800Z 19.5N 163.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:20 UTC