Hurricane FELICIA

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HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
200 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2009
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CLASSIC MAJOR HURRICANE WITH AN EYE
OF ABOUT 20 NM IN DIAMETER AND APPARENT MESOVORTICES ROTATING AROUND
THE CENTER.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE BIT IN THE
EYEWALL...AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 115 KT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.
 
A CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY DUE TO
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS IN ITS PATH.  THIS DECREASE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED TO BE TEMPERED BY FELICIA HAVING SOME ANNULAR
HURRICANE CHARACTERISTICS.  THIS ANNULAR STRUCTURE IN COMBINATION
WITH LOW WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS COULD ENABLE THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY MORE THAN IT NORMALLY WOULD OVER
MARGINAL SSTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGHER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND IS NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR TO THE HWRF MODEL.  AT ABOUT THE TIME THAT FELICIA MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...GLOBAL MODELS INCREASE THE WIND SHEAR
SIGNIFICANTLY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THE WEAKENING PROCESS EVEN
THOUGH WATER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM WEST OF 140W.  IN FACT...
ALL OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW THE SYSTEM TO BE
EITHER A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR DISSIPATED AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP FELICIA AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...THOUGH THE STRONG SHEAR COULD
EVEN WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.
 
THE HURRICANE REMAINS ON TRACK AND CONTINUES TO MOVE AT ABOUT 305/9.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGESTING THAT FELICIA WILL TURN MORE TO WEST-NORTHWEST
THEN WEST WITH TIME AS RIDGING BUILDS NORTHEAST OF HAWAII.  GLOBAL
MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGHOUT 72 HOURS...AND LITTLE CHANGE
WAS MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST.  THEREAFTER...SINCE FELICIA IS
FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER AT LONG-RANGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL ASSUME THAT THE THE SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED A LITTLE SOUTH OF
DUE WEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES.  HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO
FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST POINTS AT DAYS 4 AND 5 BECAUSE THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME FRAME.
 
AS A NOTE...FELICIA IS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC SINCE HURRICANE DANIEL OF 2006.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 16.4N 132.7W   115 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 17.2N 133.9W   105 KT
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 18.3N 135.5W    95 KT
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 19.2N 137.7W    80 KT
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 19.7N 140.2W    70 KT
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 20.0N 146.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     10/1800Z 19.7N 151.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     11/1800Z 19.5N 156.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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