ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FELICIA HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE AND A SYMMETRICAL OUTFLOW PATTERN. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1800 UTC SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT BUT SINCE THAT TIME... THE EYE HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGES. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT...MAKING FELICIA THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE 2009 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN IN A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE TODAY...AND WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING...THE QUESTION IS: HOW STRONG WILL IT GET? THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE ON BOTH THE 85 AND 37 GHZ CHANNELS OF A 1547 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SUPPORTS MORE STRENGTHENING...EVEN A CONTINUATION OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ALSO FORECASTS A 62 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS...ABOUT 8 TIMES THE SAMPLE MEAN. ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE...THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST WILL LEAN ON SHIPS AND THE MICROWAVE DATA TO FORECAST RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND LEVEL OFF THE WINDS THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. IN THE LONGER-TERM...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR MAY ALSO HELP TO WEAKEN THE HURRICANE. FELICIA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST...280/12. A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE DUE TO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 130W. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FELICIA TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ENRIQUE TO CAUSE FURTHER RIDGE WEAKENING... WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD MOTION OF FELICIA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL/HWRF/ECMWF SHOWING MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES AND THE UKMET/NOGAPS SHOWING VIRTUALLY NONE. FOR NOW...I'M GOING TO LEAN ON THE GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS MORE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 12.4N 126.6W 70 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 13.0N 128.3W 85 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 13.9N 130.1W 95 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 14.7N 131.7W 100 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 15.5N 133.3W 100 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 16.5N 137.0W 90 KT 96HR VT 08/1800Z 17.5N 142.5W 80 KT 120HR VT 09/1800Z 17.5N 148.5W 65 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:20 UTC