Tropical Storm FELICIA

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TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E HAS
BECOME TROPICAL STORM FELICIA...THE SIXTH STORM OF THE SEASON.  THE
CENTER APPEARS TO BE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF A PROMINENT
BANDING FEATURE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB/CIMSS ARE BETWEEN 35-45 KT...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO 40 KT.  FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FELICIA REMAINS OVER
WARM WATER WITH LIGHT SHEAR.  BEYOND THAT TIME...A COMBINATION OF
INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR FROM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE AND COOLER
WATERS COULD LIMIT ANY FUTURE STRENGTHENING.  THE NHC FORECAST
SHOWS A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS LINE
WITH THE SHIPS/HWRF/LGEM MODELS IN MAKING THIS STORM A HURRICANE ON
THURSDAY.
 
FELICIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT ABOUT 295/12...THOUGH RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS IT COULD BE MOVING A BIT MORE TO THE
WEST.  FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO STEERED
BY RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERD ON A WEST-NORTHWEST PATH.  THEREAFTER...THE
TRACK FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED WITH THE PRESENCE OF ENRIQUE TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONES IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE ECMWF EVEN SHOWING
ENRIQUE PINWHEELING AROUND FELICIA.  WHILE THAT SITUATION IS NOT
CONSIDERED LIKELY AT THIS TIME...IN GENERAL THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL TREND IN
THAT DIRECTION.  IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS
FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE AT LONGER-RANGE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 12.7N 124.9W    40 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 13.5N 126.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 14.4N 128.4W    55 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 15.3N 130.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 16.1N 131.7W    65 KT
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 17.5N 135.5W    60 KT
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 18.0N 141.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     09/1200Z 18.0N 147.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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