ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009 800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2009 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF ENRIQUE HAS DEGRADED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT. A FORTUITOUS 1015 UTC AMSR-E OVERPASS WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. ENRIQUE IS ALREADY OVER SSTS BELOW 24 DEGREES CELSIUS AND HEADING TOWARD EVEN COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE... CONTINUED WEAKENING IS PREDICTED AND ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300/15 KT. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...IT SHOULD TURN A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 21.3N 127.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 22.2N 129.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 23.0N 132.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 08/0000Z 23.2N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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