ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 800 AM PDT WED AUG 05 2009 A BURST OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY IMPROVED THE APPEARANCE OF ENRIQUE WITH A SLIGHT SATELLITE-BASED ADJUSTMENT OF THE DIFFUSE CENTER TO THE WEST TOWARDS THE BEST CONVECTION. DEVELOPMENT IN THIS DIRECTION WILL SOON LEAD TO WEAKENING GIVEN ITS RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MUCH-STRONGER FELICIA. VARIOUS GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HWRF AND GHM...INDICATE A FAIRLY RAPID DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE ENERGY IS ABSORBED INTO FELICIA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DISSIPATION TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 48 HOURS. ENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN FELICIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODELS ARE INDICATING A FUJIWHARA EFFECT OWING TO FELICIA THAT WILL GRADUALLY TURN THE MOTION ALMOST DUE WEST BY 24 HOURS...MOST MODELS DO NOT KEEP THE CYCLONE INTACT BEYOND 36 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 17.3N 122.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 18.4N 124.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 19.3N 126.3W 30 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 19.7N 128.8W 25 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 19.7N 131.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER SOWKO NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:20 UTC