ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009 200 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2009 DOLORES HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND 1330 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT IF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-FIRE...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS OVER WATERS OF AROUND 24C. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/16...AND THE TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE SPINS DOWN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW DISSIPATING BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. HOWEVER... THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE SOONER...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 19.3N 122.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 20.4N 125.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 17/1800Z 21.4N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 18/0600Z 22.3N 130.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 18/1800Z 22.9N 133.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:19 UTC