ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009 200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009 VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DOLORES' CIRCULATION CENTER IS PARTIALLY DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY...AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CLOUD PATTERN. ALTHOUGH DOLORES HAS BEEN AFFECTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AS REFLECTED BY THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DESPITE THE RATHER MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN. AFTERWARD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DOLORES MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ULTIMATELY BEING REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DOLORES COULD BECOME A BIT STRONGER EARLY IN THE PERIOD THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IF THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/12. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A GRADUAL TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED...FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW AS THE DOLORES WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THIS MORNING'S FORECAST AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 16.2N 116.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 17.1N 118.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 18.4N 121.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 19.6N 124.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 20.5N 127.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 133.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 19/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 20/1800Z 22.0N 144.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:19 UTC