ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE CARLOS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009 300 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009 RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE FORMATION OF A SMALL EYE...AND THEREFORE CARLOS IS UPGRADED ONCE AGAIN TO A HURRICANE. THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO ADJUST THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST. WE HAVE MODIFIED THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASED ON THE REVISED INITIAL WIND SPEED...AND THE ASSUMPTION THAT SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING COULD TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER...AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF CARLOS. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1000Z 9.7N 127.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 9.8N 128.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 10.0N 130.3W 70 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 10.2N 132.4W 65 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 10.4N 134.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 11.0N 139.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 11.5N 144.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 11.5N 150.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:17 UTC