ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CARLOS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING. A SMALL EYE HAS BEEN SEEN INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND BRIEFLY BECAME QUITE DISTINCT JUST AFTER 0000 UTC. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME IT HAS BECOME OBSCURED ONCE AGAIN. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 WHICH SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT. CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED. THE SHIPS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING THE HURRICANE TO CATEGORY THREE STATUS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND THE RECENT CONTINUED INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REACH SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER AND APPROACH AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING. CARLOS CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD PATH AT ABOUT 11 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY PREDICTS A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE PREDICTED FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...IT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN DEFERENCE TO THE FASTER GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 10.5N 119.0W 75 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 10.6N 120.7W 90 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 10.8N 123.0W 100 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 11.0N 125.4W 105 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 11.3N 127.7W 105 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 12.0N 132.3W 100 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 12.7N 137.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 13.5N 142.0W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:17 UTC