ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009 DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 18Z WERE T2.5 AND T2.0...RESPECTIVELY. THE CYCLONE HAS AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF DAY...AND ENOUGH BANDING GENERALLY TO GIVE IT THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12...AGAIN FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF CARLOS...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY...CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO GAIN LITTLE LATITUDE AND REMAIN ON A TRACK JUST NORTH OF WEST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH MODEST DIFFERENCES PRIMARILY IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN DEFERENCE TO THE ECMWF...WHICH IS THE SLOWEST OF THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE MODELS. CARLOS IS WELL ORGANIZED AND RELATIVELY SMALL...OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. CONSEQUENTLY IT IS A DECENT CANDIDATE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH THIS DOESN'T OCCUR OFTEN IN MINIMAL TROPICAL STORMS. THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE ESTIMATES A 35% CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED DSHP/LGEM/HWFI/GHMI ENSEMBLE. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...CARLOS SHOULD BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS...WHICH MIGHT ACT TO SLOW THE STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 10.3N 113.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 10.4N 115.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 10.8N 117.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 11.1N 120.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 11.4N 122.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 12.0N 127.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 14/1800Z 12.5N 131.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 15/1800Z 13.0N 136.0W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:17 UTC