ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009 800 AM PDT WED JUL 08 2009 AN 0532 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH WAS COINCIDENT WITH THE TIME WHEN ALL DEEP CONVECTION BEGAN TO COLLAPSE. ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED...BLANCA IS NOW A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING OVER 22-23C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BASED ON THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO HAS BEEN STEERING BLANCA ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST HEADING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. HOWEVER...THE RECENT DISSIPATION OF ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS MADE BLANCA A SHALLOW SYSTEM WHOSE MOTION IS BEING CONTROLLED BY A WEAKER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE RECENT MORE WESTWARD MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND IS ON LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 20.8N 120.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 21.5N 121.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 09/1200Z 22.0N 122.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 10/0000Z 22.5N 124.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:16 UTC