ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 07 2009 CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS DETERIORATED RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED UPON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. BLANCA IS NEARING THE 24C SST ISOTHERM AS IT MOVES ACROSS A STRONG GRADIENT OF SST. MOREOVER...THE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO INGEST INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND ENCOUNTER A MODEST AMOUNT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. THESE FACTORS FAVOR A CONTINUED STEADY DECLINE IN INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN CLOSE ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. BLANCA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HOURS...BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS THIS EVENT COULD OCCUR SOONER. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305/10...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED MOTION. THE TRACK REASONING WITH REGARD TO BLANCA HAS NOT CHANGED. THE CYCLONE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAKENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 19.7N 116.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 20.3N 117.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 21.0N 119.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 09/0600Z 21.8N 120.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 09/1800Z 22.5N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:16 UTC