ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLANCA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009 530 AM PDT MON JUL 06 2009 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. RECENT DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB ARE BOTH 2.5...AND A 0921 UTC AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE AMSR-E IMAGE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BLANCA. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER... BLANCA SHOULD REACH SUB-26C IN A DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/9. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A BROAD BUT FLAT RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER BLANCA ON A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ONCE BLANCA BEGINS TO WEAKEN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1230Z 17.1N 111.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 17.5N 113.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 18.3N 115.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 18.9N 117.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 19.4N 118.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 10/0600Z 20.5N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:16 UTC