Tropical Storm BLANCA
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TROPICAL STORM BLANCA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032009
530 AM PDT MON JUL 06 2009
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED
A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. RECENT DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB ARE
BOTH 2.5...AND A 0921 UTC AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AN
EYE-LIKE FEATURE. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE AMSR-E
IMAGE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BLANCA.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER... BLANCA SHOULD
REACH SUB-26C IN A DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/9. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A BROAD BUT FLAT RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER BLANCA ON A
MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ONCE BLANCA BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1230Z 17.1N 111.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 17.5N 113.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 18.3N 115.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 18.9N 117.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 19.4N 118.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 20.5N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
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