Tropical Storm ANDRES
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TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
1500 UTC TUE JUN 23 2009
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 2 8 43 51 59
TROP DEPRESSION 1 3 12 32 38 34 30
TROPICAL STORM 67 68 70 53 17 15 11
HURRICANE 31 29 17 8 1 X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 29 26 14 7 1 X X
HUR CAT 2 2 3 2 1 X X X
HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 65KT 60KT 50KT 30KT 25KT 20KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 15(32) 3(35) X(35) 1(36)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 15(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16)
LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CULICAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MAZATLAN 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
SAN BLAS 34 1 15(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
P VALLARTA 34 14 27(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
P VALLARTA 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 87 1(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 22 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MANZANILLO 34 70 X(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)
MANZANILLO 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 46(47) 10(57) X(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 10(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
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