ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009 200 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2009 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DETERIORATING CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM...AS A RAGGED-LOOKING MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT ANDRES IS SUCCUMBING TO THE PERSISTENT EAST- NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING IT OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT BE A GENEROUS ESTIMATE. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT OF ANDRES SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 36 HOURS OR LESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 305/8 ALTHOUGH THE CENTER POSITION IS RATHER IMPRECISE AT THE MOMENT. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM AT THIS TIME IS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE MOTION OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE BECOMES DOMINATED BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...WHICH ARE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THEN THE WINDS AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...AND IS NEAR THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 19.5N 106.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 20.3N 107.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 21.2N 109.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 21.8N 110.6W 30 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 22.3N 112.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 27/0600Z 23.0N 115.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:15 UTC