ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009 200 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009 DESPITE THE RELATIVE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE SFMR ON THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF 63 KT AND 67 KT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEST OF THE CENTER... RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH THE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT LESS...TWO DROPSONDES RELEASED EAST OF THE CENTER ALSO MEASURED ROUGHLY 65 KT SURFACE WINDS...WHICH SUPPORT THE SFMR MEASUREMENTS. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS ANDRES IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE AND IT WAS POSSIBLY EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANDRES WILL NOT STRENGTHEN ANY MORE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MORE STEADY WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN 36-48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW ENOUGH LAND INTERACTION THAT THEY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CENTER JUST OFF THE COAST AND ASSUMES THAT ANDRES WILL TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS CLOSE THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 12-24 HOURS...THEN FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND BAMM...AND BAMS THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 18.6N 105.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 19.9N 106.4W 60 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 20.9N 107.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 21.7N 109.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 22.4N 110.6W 30 KT 72HR VT 26/1800Z 23.2N 113.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 27/1800Z 23.5N 115.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:15 UTC