Tropical Storm ANDRES

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TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022009
800 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ANDRES HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 4.0 AND 3.5 RESPECTIVELY. A VERY
RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A BELIEVABLE 55-60 KT WIND VECTOR AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE
ANDRES. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT
OF THE CENTER LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.
ANDRES CONTINUES MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  IN THE SHORT RANGE...SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS TAKE THE CENTER INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND KEEPS THE CENTER
OFFSHORE...HOWEVER IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ANDRES
COULD MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY.  THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION.  IN
THE LONGER RANGE...THE HWRF HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY EASTWARD AND
SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THIS SHIFT HAS
CAUSED THE CONSENSUS TO ALSO MOVE EASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE 2-5 DAY TIME
FRAME...BUT IS STILL SOUTHWEST OF THE CONSENSUS.  

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY PROBLEMATIC SINCE THERE ARE LARGE
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING LAND INTERACTION.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LITTLE...IF ANY...STRENGHTENING...HOWEVER THE NHC
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ANDRES TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN
12 HOURS.  IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 18.0N 104.4W    60 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 19.4N 105.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 20.8N 107.1W    65 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 21.8N 108.7W    60 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 22.5N 110.2W    50 KT
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 23.3N 113.2W    30 KT
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     28/1200Z 23.5N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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