ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009 800 AM PDT FRI JUN 19 2009 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS STRENGTHENING...THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS THE SYSTEM BRIEFLY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...BUT DOES NOT BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. WHILE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME... ONE COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/09. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHOWS A NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK BEFORE DISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. IF THE DEPRESSION WEAKENS FASTER THAN INDICATED...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD BE LEFT BEHIND TO MEANDER BETWEEN LAS ISLAS MARIAS AND MAINLAND MEXICO. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO. IN ADDITION... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 21.0N 107.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 22.0N 106.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 23.2N 106.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 24.2N 106.6W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:15 UTC