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Tropical Depression EIGHT


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082009
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2009
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CONVECTION WAS MINIMAL BUT IT HAS BEGUN TO
BLOSSOM AS WE SPEAK. ALTHOUGH THE T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED...FOR
THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION HAS A SMALL
OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...
STRONG SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS WILL INDUCE WEAKENING...AND THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS OR SOONER. 

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10
KNOTS WHILE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A SMALL MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.  SINCE THE PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT EVEN ACKNOWLEDGE THE
PRESENCE OF THE DEPRESSION OR DEPICT THE DEPRESSION AS A SMALL
VORTMAX. 
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 17.4N  32.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 18.4N  33.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 19.6N  36.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N  37.5W    25 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 22.5N  38.8W    25 KT
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 24.0N  40.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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