Tropical Storm ERIKA

ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009               
2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2009                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       2       5      13      17      28      36      NA
TROP DEPRESSION 35      38      45      40      36      34      NA
TROPICAL STORM  63      55      39      39      32      28      NA
HURRICANE        X       2       2       4       4       3      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        X       2       2       4       4       3      NA
HUR CAT 2        X       X       X       X       X       X      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    35KT    30KT    30KT    25KT    20KT    NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)   X(11)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
 
PONCE          34  X   4( 4)  12(16)   5(21)   2(23)   1(24)   X(24)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN JUAN       34  1   6( 7)  14(21)   4(25)   1(26)   1(27)   X(27)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  1  17(18)  11(29)   1(30)   1(31)   1(32)   X(32)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  2  21(23)  11(34)   2(36)   X(36)   1(37)   X(37)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34 12  17(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 35  18(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34 33   3(36)   X(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 
ANTIGUA        34 59   2(61)   1(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 
GUADELOUPE     34 67   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
 
AVES           34  4   5( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
DOMINICA       34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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