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Hurricane BILL (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  26                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009               
2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2009                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS
...105 MPH...165 KM/HR.                                             
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       1       8      12      25
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       1       3      23      25      28
TROPICAL STORM   X       1      13      38      53      49      39
HURRICANE       99      99      86      59      16      14       8
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        4      13      45      39      12      11       7
HUR CAT 2       34      35      27      14       3       2       1
HUR CAT 3       57      43      11       5       1       1       X
HUR CAT 4        5       8       2       2       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        1       1       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND  100KT   100KT    85KT    75KT    50KT    45KT    35KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  34(34)   2(36)   X(36)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  46(46)   1(47)   X(47)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   X(14)   X(14)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  43(45)   X(45)   X(45)
ILE ST PIERRE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   X(16)   X(16)
ILE ST PIERRE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  28(30)   X(30)   X(30)
BURGEO NFLD    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
BURGEO NFLD    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  22(25)   X(25)   X(25)
PTX BASQUES    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
PTX BASQUES    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  27(27)  23(50)   X(50)   X(50)
EDDY POINT NS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  16(21)   X(21)   X(21)
EDDY POINT NS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  29(43)   X(43)   X(43)
SYDNEY NS      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   X(15)   X(15)
SYDNEY NS      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  34(34)  36(70)   X(70)   X(70)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  25(30)   X(30)   X(30)
SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  44(45)  10(55)   X(55)   X(55)
HALIFAX NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  10(25)   X(25)   X(25)
HALIFAX NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  38(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
YARMOUTH NS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   5(23)   X(23)   X(23)
MONCTON NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)   3(26)   X(26)   X(26)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
ST JOHN NB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
EASTPORT ME    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
BAR HARBOR ME  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)  13(13)   6(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)  19(19)   6(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34 67   3(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
BERMUDA        50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:06 UTC