Tropical Storm BILL
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X X 1
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 1 1
TROPICAL STORM 43 19 11 7 6 8 14
HURRICANE 57 81 89 93 94 92 85
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 52 58 40 26 19 21 25
HUR CAT 2 4 17 31 30 24 22 21
HUR CAT 3 1 5 15 27 32 30 24
HUR CAT 4 1 1 3 9 16 16 13
HUR CAT 5 X X 1 2 3 3 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65KT 75KT 85KT 95KT 105KT 105KT 105KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
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FORECASTER BLAKE
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