Tropical Depression TWO
ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
0430 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009
AT 0430Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 3 2 3 2 4 6 11
TROP DEPRESSION 57 20 16 12 16 17 20
TROPICAL STORM 39 72 69 61 53 51 45
HURRICANE 1 6 13 25 26 26 24
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 5 11 20 20 20 18
HUR CAT 2 1 X 2 3 4 4 4
HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 1 2 2 2
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 50KT 50KT 50KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 6(22)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16)
PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) X(20)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) X(24)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 4(19) X(19)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 2(28) X(28)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 2(23) X(23)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 1(29) 1(30)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 2(25) X(25)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) X(17)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
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FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
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