Tropical Depression ANA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009
500 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ANA DID NOT
FIND ANY WINDS TO SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. IN FACT...ALL
OF THE STRONG WINDS WERE WELL NORTH OF THE PRESSURE MINIMUM IN THE
EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT FOR
THIS PACKAGE. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO STRUGGLED TO CLOSE OFF A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR NOW
SINCE THE AIRCRAFT WILL STILL BE IN THE SYSTEM UNTIL 0000 UTC. IF
A WELL-DEFINED CENTER CANNOT BE FOUND AT THAT TIME...ADVISORIES MAY
BE DISCONTINUED.
 
ANA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD VERY QUICKLY...ALONG A HEADING OF
280/20. THIS QUICK MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...EXCEPT A
LITTLE FASTER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE QUICK INITIAL MOTION.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE...WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE REACHING HISPANIOLA. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.
 
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE CONTINUED...GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOT
FAR BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND APPROACHING THE ISLANDS SOON.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 15.1N  58.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 15.7N  62.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 16.7N  66.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 17.8N  70.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 18.8N  73.6W    30 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 21.5N  80.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 23.5N  84.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 25.0N  87.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
 
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