ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009 1100 AM AST FRI MAY 29 2009 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED...WITH INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR DISPLACING THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB CONFIRM THIS DEGRADATION IN APPEARANCE...BUT WINDS ARE CONSERVATIVELY KEPT AT 30 KT THIS ADVISORY BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT ESTIMATES. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 065/16...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUGGESTS A FURTHER ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED COLDER WATERS...AND THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER EVEN COLDER WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE MAJORITY OF GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN 12 HOURS AND ABSORPTION BY THE FRONTAL ZONE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 39.6N 64.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 41.2N 61.2W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:01 UTC