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Tropical Storm POLO (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182008
700 AM PST MON NOV 03 2008
 
POLO IS A MIDGET TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A RATHER TINY AREA OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. WHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS BEEN
EVIDENT IN THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...CLOUD-TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED AT A 2.5 CI NUMBER. WINDS IN SUCH SMALL
SYSTEMS COULD BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED FROM DVORAK...BUT IN THE
ABSENCE OF IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
35 KT.
 
POLO IS MOVING AT 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST.  A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN
THE RIDGE IN ABOUT ONE TO TWO DAYS...AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS BY BENDING THE CYCLONE'S TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR NORTHWEST.  AT THE LONG-LEAD...THE TRACK MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A WEAKENING CYCLONE STAIR-STEPPING BACK
TOWARD THE WEST...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF HURRICANE MODELS RECURVE
A STRONGER POLO BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE.  GIVEN THAT ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IN ABOUT 48-60 HOURS...THE FORECAST
TRACK LEANS TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF A WEAKENING
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS A BIT WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS...PERHAPS AS USUAL...NOT STRAIGHTFORWARD.
THE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...AND WARM SSTS WOULD
SUGGEST ROBUST INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  BUT THE
UNCONDUCIVE THERMODYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT AND RATHER MEAGER
CONVECTION WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY SLOWLY
BRINGS THE WINDS UP THROUGH 48 HOURS...STRONGER THAN THE
STATISTICAL MODELS...BUT WEAKER THAN THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
AFTER TWO DAYS...THE INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE
WEAKENING AND THE PREDICTED INTENSITY IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z  8.8N 113.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z  8.9N 114.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z  9.4N 116.8W    45 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 10.4N 118.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 11.3N 120.3W    55 KT
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 12.5N 122.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 13.5N 125.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     08/1200Z 14.0N 128.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH
 
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