ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008 ...CENTER OF THE POORLY-ORGANIZED ODILE APPROACHING THE MANZANILLO AREA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE TRACK OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ODILE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...18.2 N...103.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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