ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS ODILE MUCH WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED... AT 2 AM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO LA FORTUNA AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM...WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 125 MILES ...200 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE TRACK OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...17.9 N...102.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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