ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162008 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2008 SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA FROM MEXICO CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT ODILE IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS SHAPELESS AND DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO ONLY REPORTED RAIN AND PRESSURES RISING WITH LIGHT WINDS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KNOTS. SINCE WE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH VISIBLE IMAGES AT THIS TIME...WE ARE KEEPING ODILE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THIS ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION MOST LIKELY WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. BECAUSE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER...THE ESTIMATES OF THE INITIAL MOTION HAVE BEEN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. I HAVE USED CONTINUITY TO LOCATE THE CENTER BUT I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CENTER HAS MOVED INLAND AND IS DISSIPATING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST UNTIL DISSIPATION LATER TODAY OR MONDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 19.5N 105.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 19.8N 106.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 13/1200Z 20.0N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:46 UTC