Hurricane NORBERT
ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008
0900 UTC SAT OCT 11 2008
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 17 75 NA NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION X 57 22 NA NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 5 20 3 NA NA NA NA
HURRICANE 95 7 X NA NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 60 2 X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 24 3 X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 11 2 X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 1 X X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 80KT 35KT 20KT NA NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
LA PAZ 34 73 X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
LA PAZ 50 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LORETO 34 90 7(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
LORETO 50 39 25(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
LORETO 64 8 13(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
HERMOSILLO 34 3 9(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
BAHIA KINO 34 4 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
GUAYMAS 34 12 37(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
GUAYMAS 50 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GUAYMAS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
HUATABAMPO 34 26 50(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
HUATABAMPO 50 1 16(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
HUATABAMPO 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 20 17(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
LOS MOCHIS 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CULICAN 34 17 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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