ZCZC MIATCMEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 2100 UTC SAT OCT 04 2008 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 100.3W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 100.3W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 100.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.3N 101.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.5N 102.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.0N 103.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.5N 104.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 16.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 100.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:44 UTC