ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT NORBERT CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY COLD CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES NOW SHOW ONE DISTINCT EYEWALL SO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN COMPLETED. THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN 90 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A BIT ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...HERALDING AN INCREASE IN SHEAR SOON...BUT PROBABLY NOT SOON ENOUGH TO CAUSE NORBERT TO WEAKEN MUCH BEFORE LANDFALL. A FASTER DECREASE IN STRENGTH SHOULD OCCUR TOMORROW AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND AND THE SHEAR INCREASES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WEAKENING MIGHT NOT BE FAST ENOUGH TO BRING THE SYSTEM BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO...SO A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL. THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ACCLERATED A BIT TO ABOUT 10 KT. A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD OCCUR TOMORROW DUE TO STEERING FROM A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE NHC FORECAST IS NOT APPRECIABLY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...THERE WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF NORBERT BUT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES COULD BE SIGNIFICANT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 22.3N 113.1W 90 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 23.9N 112.3W 85 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 26.3N 110.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 29.0N 108.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 48HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:45 UTC