ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008 UNFORTUNATELY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT THAT WAS SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAD TO BE CANCELED DUE TO AN EQUIPMENT PROBLEM. NONETHELESS...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 90 KT AND 102 KT RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED CONSERVATIVELY TO 90 KT. YESTERDAY'S HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NOT AS STRONG AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAD SUGGESTED...SO I AM LOATH TO BRING THE INTENSITY ANY HIGHER THAN THE LOW END OF THE ESTIMATES. MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE INNER EYEWALL HAS PROBABLY COLLAPSED...AND IS NOW ROTATING WITHIN THE LARGE EYE...SO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT MAY BE COMPLETE. AGAIN...THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS HAD TO BE NUDGED UPWARD TO REFLECT THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE NEW FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS CLOSELY WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TO 30-40 KT BY 36 HOURS AND NEAR 50 KT BY 48 HOURS...SO NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT CROSSES THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. NORBERT IS FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL STORM BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...BUT THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE INDICATES THERE IS STILL A 40% CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE A HURRICANE AT THAT POINT...SO A HURRICANE WATCH WAS REQUIRED FOR THAT AREA. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE NORBERT MAKES ITS SECOND LANDFALL...WITH THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING SHEARED QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PROBABLY BEING BLOCKED OR DESTROYED BY THE SIERRA MADRES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 21.4N 113.4W 90 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 22.9N 113.0W 85 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 24.9N 111.6W 70 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA 36HR VT 12/0600Z 27.1N 109.8W 60 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 12/1800Z 28.3N 108.5W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN NNNN
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