ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 200 AM PDT THU OCT 09 2008 THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE EYE CONTINUES TO BE DISTINCT ON IR IMAGES BUT THE SURROUNDING RING OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED. MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOWS THAT EYEWALL STRUCTURE IS LESS DEFINED THAN A FEW HOURS AGO. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE BEGUN TO COME DOWN. INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KNOTS. DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DUE TO CHANGES IN THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. NEVERTHELESS...NORBERT IS FORECAST TO CROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BUT A FASTER WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT GRADUALLY APPROACHES A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE CYCLONE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAINLAND MEXICO AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONLY THE GFS MODEL INSISTS ON WEAKENING THE CYCLONE WHILE KEEPING IT STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC AT THIS TIME. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 17.5N 112.5W 110 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 18.3N 113.2W 110 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 19.5N 114.0W 100 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 21.5N 113.5W 100 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 23.5N 112.5W 90 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 28.5N 108.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 13/0600Z 35.0N 104.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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