ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2008 NORBERT'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A VERY COLD-TOPPED CDO FEATURE AND EVIDENCE OF BANDING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT WHICH IS BETWEEN DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. NORBERT SHOULD REMAIN IN A WEAK SHEAR...WARM WATER ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS SO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. THE HWRF MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MOST STRENGTHENING WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE BEING MUCH LOWER. ONE OF THE INHIBITING FACTORS IN THE LATTER TWO STATISTICAL/ DYNAMICAL TECHNIQUES IS THE GFS VORTEX TENDENCY TERM...WHICH COULD BE UNREALISTICALLY NEGATIVE SINCE THAT GLOBAL MODEL APPEARS TO SPIN NORBERT DOWN TOO MUCH...AND SPIN UP A SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF NORBERT TOO MUCH...IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290/7. OUR TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NORBERT TURNING NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A ROBUST MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER NOT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CARRY NORBERT OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FOR EXAMPLE THE HIGHLY-REGARDED ECMWF MODEL DEPICTS THE TROUGH MISSING NORBERT AND SHOWS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WANDERING OFF TO THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 15.3N 107.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 15.7N 108.2W 70 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 16.3N 109.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 17.1N 111.2W 80 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 18.0N 112.2W 80 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 20.5N 113.4W 80 KT 96HR VT 11/1200Z 23.5N 112.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 12/1200Z 26.0N 110.5W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:45 UTC