ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152008 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2008 AFTER LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED A FEW HOURS AGO...THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE CENTER OF NORBERT. HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS NOT DETECTED AN EYE FEATURE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT. SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THROUGH 72 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE LOWER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE MORE ROBUST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER...THE EXACT TRACK WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE AS TO THE SSTS THAT NORBERT CROSSES OVER. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS NORBERT OVER 27 DEGREE SSTS...SO ONLY A LITTLE WEAKENING IS INDICATED MAINLY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT NORBERT HAS TAKEN A SLIGHT JOG TO THE RIGHT WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STEER IT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORBERT NORTHWARD AT THAT TIME. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PICK UP NORBERT AND TURN IT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH BY-PASSING NORBERT...WHILE THE GFS PREDICTS A VERY UNLIKELY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HURRICANE AND THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC. WHILE LOW WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THESE LATTER SOLUTIONS...THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE FORWARD SPEED ON NORBERT IN THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 15.1N 106.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W 70 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 16.0N 109.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 16.6N 110.4W 80 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 17.5N 111.6W 80 KT 72HR VT 10/0600Z 19.8N 113.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 11/0600Z 22.5N 112.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 12/0600Z 26.0N 110.0W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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